I’ve let a lot of time go by since I wrote last about the election because I knew the few weeks between Iowa and the tail end of primary contests would include a lot of change and a lot of insanity. If anyone has paid attention to even a sliver of this election’s coverage, such as the recent violence at a Trump rally that occurred in Chicago, you know what I’m talking about.
Since Iowa, every candidate running for the Republican ticket has dropped out of the race except for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich. Trump is still the obvious frontrunner with a significant lead in the number of delegates than Cruz (739 to 465, according to RealClearPolitics). Kasich has remained in the race after recently winning all 66 delegates from his home state of Ohio. Rubio was the most recent drop-out after losing his home state of Florida. Reports say that he was also approached about a Cruz-Rubio unity ticket, but he swiftly refused. His senate term expires at the end of this term, so he will go back to being a private citizen in January.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have both held strong campaigns and from the outside, it would seem they are neck and neck. However, Clinton also has nearly twice the delegates of Sanders (1690 to his 946).
If you’re like me, you’re wondering WHY DONALD TRUMP IS ACTUALLY WINNING THIS THING. Back when he announced his candidacy last June, I continuously reminded friends and colleagues that candidates who led in the polls the summer before an election statistically and historically hardly ever win the nomination. Yet here we are, and Trump has disproved my own prediction and blown away any trace of a “usual” election cycle. Recently, I read a Bloomberg article explaining his anomaly.
In a nutshell, it explains that polling data shows that Republicans aren’t necessarily more angry, bigoted, or scared than they were during the 2012 election. There just has never been a candidate “fanning these flames” quite like Trump before. Additionally, it could be that:
Trump is doing well precisely because things aren’t particularly bad for the U.S. right now. In difficult times, voters take their responsibilities more seriously, and wouldn’t embrace the buffoonery of a reality-television star. People can indulge in Trump’s fantasies in a period of (more or less) peace and (sort of) prosperity.
To me, this seems to make sense. If Americans were hurting, perhaps like they were in the 2008 cycle when President Obama was elected, they might be taking this election more seriously because their livelihoods were at stake. Now that the economy has rebounded from the “Great Recession,” voters are more open to embracing Trump because they don’t have as much to lose. Now, i’m not saying that all Americans are doing far better than they were 8 years ago. And there probably are bigots that are happy to embrace trump as their candidate. However, the general trend is that the American people are in a better, safer place from which to be entertained.
I should also mention, if the contest ends up being Clinton vs. Trump come November, a Quinnipiac University poll reported by this NY Times article suggests that Trump would be a weak candidate against Hillary, and could nearly hand Hillary the election.
What do you guys think? Leave me your comments.
#staysmart #stayinformed #jesuisbruxelles